Albirex Niigata - JubiloIwata. J1 League (Japan). 01/07/17. Corners.

Japan is the country of technique and one of the brightest representatives of Asia. This is the country where football is becoming more and more popular. Higher football League approaches to the equator and it means that the group of leaders and outsiders are partially defined and statistical analysis consists of plausible prognoses. This time the team of Corner-stats.com paid attention on the match between teams in which average total corners per match is under 8 in 2017 season:

• Average total is 7.86 corners per match in 7 home matches of Albirex Niigata
• Average total is 6.62 corners per match in 7 away matches of Jubilo

Of course, the difference in 1.5 corners from total 9.5 for Albirex is not a lot, and 2.5 corners difference is very good for Jubilo but even this deviation should have corresponding odds.

The question arises – is it enough 1.83 odds for such deviations?

One of mathematical variants of calculations is using CV – the coefficient of variation.

If to go to the page of tournament of Jay-League 1 and choose the 2017 year, you can see three new values:  CV_T, CV_IТ1, CV_IТ2:

If to define for Jubilo only away matches, total corners = 6.62 and the coefficient of variation is 0.35 that indicates a low variability in the characteristics.

Such as the coefficient of variation = standard deviation / mean, we can calculate the dispersion for Jubilo which is 2.317=6.62*0.35.

Similarly, the dispersion can be calculated for Albirexfor its home matches = 3.380 (Total = 7.86, CV_T = 0.43 - taken from the tournament page for the J1 League).

Now, knowing the dispersion, using the image (the graph of the normal distribution, where σ -the dispersion is indicated)

Approximately, it is possible to calculate the probabilities of the number of corners for teams (the average value of total on the graph corresponds to 0 in the x-axis).

That’s why the probability that the bet on total corners under 9.5 for Jubilo will give minimum of probability (the field circled in red): 84,2% = 0,1% + 2,1% +13,6% + 34,1% +34,1%

So, for Jubido the probability of total corners at home matches in 2017 season under 9.5 will be 0.84. Then, profitof the bet for Jubilo will be:0,53 =(0,84 *(1,83 – 1) – 0,16*1).

Let’s calculate the corresponding value for Albirex (Total= 7.86; CV_T=0.43 ; σ = 3.38):

According to the image, zoomed, we can say that the probability is more 50% = 0,1%+2,1%+13,6%+34,2%.

So, for Albirex, the minimum profitability will be:-0,085 =(0,5 * (1,83 – 1) – 0,5).

Then the average profitability will be: 0,22 = (0,53 – 0 ,085)/2.

Of course, this method of calculating the profitability is not very accurate and very general.

For those who doesn’t like math we will place the stats:

• 4 of 7 home matches of Albirex ended with total corners 9 or less in 2017 season;
• 7 of 8 home matches of Jubilo ended with total corners 9 or less in 2017 season;
• 6 of 9 home matches of Albirex with the teams that are similar to Jubilo ended with total corners 9 or less in 2016-2017 seasons;
• 3 of 3 of  away matches of Jubilo with the teams that are similar to Albirex ended with total corners 9 or less in 2016-2017 seasons;

The team of Corner-stats.com considers that the bet on total corners under 9.5 at 1.83 odds at Bet365 is attractive.

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